A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
