Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for this long.”

Such commentary have fed a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”