Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Commons Return
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Major Barriers in the Selection Procedure
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
